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Saturday, March 6, 2010

Chinese economy at present: How and where will China be in future


Growth story of China

China is the talk of the town. Everybody is speaking about China and its economy at present. Chinese economy has the highest growth rate in the world since many years. Where do you see China and Chinese economy in the future?
Manufacturing sector of China has a tremendous growth rate. Global market is flooded with Chinese goods. Electronics, toys, electrical goods, household appliances, gems and jewelry, watches everything is from China.
China has come out from its past. Both British and Japanese oppressed China till 1940 s. China has undergone communist rule as Mao Tse Tung their leader. It has faced tyranny of cultural revolution. However, China has come out all of these and started roaring in global economy.
China has achieved highest growth in exports. It has accumulated enormous wealth. It has the highest foreign currency reserve in the world, more than $ 1900 billions. Most of the Chinese money is saved in American bonds. If China withdraws this money it can be proved disastrous for American economy.
America has given China most favored Nation's status and it has crashed the American economy. Moreover, China is preparing to enter into the American stock markets NASDAQ and Dow Jones with its huge foreign reserve. China is planning to pour more than $200 billions into the stock market of America. If they can do this, Chinese will dominate the Wall Street.
China looks irresistible in the economic front at present. Chinese economy is continually blooming. It has shown its technological abilities in the Beijing Olympics. It has bagged most of the gold medals too. China has arranged world beauty contest and bagged the miss world title!

Super power China

China is a super power and it is in the elite N-club with US, Russia, France and UK. It is in the space club with few developed countries and has already sent its mission to the moon. China also possesses veto power in the United Nations organizations. China is well ahead of the rest of the world in many fields presently.
Most of the economist in the world thinks that China will grow continually for long time and even surpass the US economy. It looks obvious but I have question marks to this theory. Economy alone can not drive a country. Human factors and socio-political issues may overrule economic development.
This is the present China but what is the future? It is likely that China will break for its own reasons. Reasons are not economic but political and social reasons. It is difficult for China to remain united as a country.
N.B. Cheap Mobile handsets of China will suffer a set back in India. These mobile hand sets generally do not carry an IMEI number. Government of India has imposed ban on those Mobile phones not having IMEI number for security reasons from 2009.

Rural poverty in Sichuan, China

China has achieved all these successes by suppressing their own people. Majority of Chinese people cannot enjoy benefits of its tremendous growth. Only few of Chinese people are enjoying the benefits of its growth while others are crying for their misfortunes. This is happening in present China.
China is clearly divided between haves and have-nots. While the Chinese politicians, bureaucrats and business persons are enjoying the growth, the labor class and villagers are left with almost nothing. The haves are riding Mercedes Benz but the majority are looking for a bicycle. Where the haves are wearing branded and designer clothes have-nots have to be satisfied with dress codes prescribed by the government. The hungry villagers depend upon the rationing food and the city people are enjoying McDonald or pasta.
Elites are flying in the business class and maintaining private jets but the villagers require permission to go out of the village. Will China change all these in future?
There is no life for them what to talk about lifestyle!

China can break like the USSR!!!

Why can China break?

China censors not only the news but also Internet. Chinese administration keeps their people apart and segregated from the rest of the world. Chinese government is oppressive in Tibet. Noble Laureate (Peace) Reverend Dalai Lama, is not allowed to enter into Tibet, his native place. He is living in exile in Dharamshala, India.
Hence, the bubble may burst one day. Tienanmen Square may be repeated many times. Rebellions are raising their heads in many places. Communal riots are often. However, news does not spread out of the iron curtain.
Severe economic, social and political disparities will not allow the upper class to sleep in a soft bed. The oppressed may woke up any time as they wake up from the addiction of opium against the British. It is obvious that no military power can resist them.
It is likely that China will break down in near future as the Mighty USSR broke despite their rosy present.

Predictions of an Economic Collapse in China

1. President Obama has welcome Dalai Lama in the White House despite strong resentment from China. They have threatened the US against this action. Chinese Government categorically informed the US that this action would affect bilateral relations adversely. However, President Obama ignored Chinese threat and invited Dalai Lama.
Chinese government has not taken any adverse action against America so far. Their economy is badly dependent on the US and it is difficult for them to go against America. Any adverse action against America may result in severe down fall in Chinese exports to the US.
2. Chinese President has admitted recently that the wealth created in Chinese economy is not properly distributed. He told that Chinese rural population is still suffering with poverty. He added that they have to provide proper health care and education facilities to the rural population of China.
Updated on march 7, 2010.

The BRICS bank: Update July 2014

China is a member of BRICS. The word BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. All these countries agreed today in Rio De Janeiro, capital of Brazil to start a bank with a capital of $ 100 B. China wanted to pour highest capital in this bank. However, due to objection of Indian Premiere Narendra Modi they can not do so. All five countries will have equal share in this bank.
India will have the first Chairperson and head quarter of the bank will be in Shanghai in China. All five nation heads attending BRICS summit have decided this today, July 16, 2014.
China is till growing at fast pace. It has recently declared its current growth rate as seven and half percent YOY. It has amazing growth rate in manufacturing sector till date. However, wages in China is growing that may reduce its competitive edge in international economy.
China will face challenges from India if they do not cooperate with the neighboring country. India wants to reduce trade imbalance with China.

Breaking news: Xi Jin Ping, Chinese President visiting India

Xi Jinping, Chinese President has been visiting India. He went to Gujrat and paid homage to Mahatma Gandhi at Sabarmati Ashram. He signed three treaties two with Gujarat government and one with Ahmadabad municipal corporation. China will invest to set up industrial park at Ahmadabad.
At present the Chinese President is in Delhi where he will discuss bilateral issues with Narendra Modi, Indian Prime Minister.


Rural poverty in China, Why can China can break like USSR?,  Growth story of China,


 










Thanks, Jyoti Kothari (Jyoti Kothari, Proprietor, Vardhaman Gems, Jaipur represents Centuries Old Tradition of Excellence in Gems and Jewelry. He is adviser, Vardhaman Infotech, a leading IT company in Jaipur. He is also ISO 9000 professional)

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